Warning Description: Special Statement

Warning Date: 9:49 PM PST on February 5, 2012

WarningSum:...Precipitation To Move Through Most Of Southwestern California 
Tuesday Afternoon And Tuesday Night...

Warning Message:A Pacific weather system will move into southwestern California 
Tuesday. This will bring a period of rain...beginning around midday 
Tuesday...though sprinkles will be possible Tuesday morning. The 
precipitation will continue Tuesday night. Most of the rainfall 
will be light to moderate...with precipitation amounts less than 
one-half inch in most areas from the mountains west to the coast. 
The deserts are expected to receive less than one-tenth inch.
The snow level will be around 6000 feet. Some locations in the San 
Bernardino and Riverside County mountains could receive one to three 
inches of snow.
Roadways could be slippery...especially during the onset of the rain 
due to oil buildup on the roads as it will have been more than two 
weeks since the last rain. Snowfall in the mountains could cause 
slippery roadways above 6000 feet.
The precipitation will end in most areas by Wednesday morning with 
fair weather expected the remainder of the week.
Maxwell
        

Expires:No;;327293
FXUS66 KSGX 061730
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST MON FEB 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
TODAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND FAIR CONDITIONS 
PREVAILING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRING A CHANCE OF 
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION.  AS THIS LOW TRACK 
SOUTHWARD AND INTO BAJA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST 
WINDS.  THESE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END 
OF THE WORK WEEK.  ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE 
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL 
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SITUATED 
UNDER A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND BETWEEN 
TO IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL LOWS.  THE FIRST OF WHICH IS OVER 
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OTHER LOW IS NEAR 41 NORTH AND 145 WEST...AND 
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACT OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF AND DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST.  IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH....SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
WILL SEE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE 
REGION TODAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES POSSIBLE.  AS A 
RESULT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHT COOLER THAN 
THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS INTO TUESDAY SYSTEM...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO 
HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  AT THIS 
TIME...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH...FORMING 
THE LOW NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...BEFORE TRACKING IT SOUTHEASTWARD 
JUST OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  MEANWHILE...THE 
00Z ECMWF AND GEM SHOW THE POSITION OF THIS LOW FORMING FARTHER 
SOUTH OVER THE BIGHT...AND THEN TRACK THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST.  GIVEN THESE DIFFERENT PLACEMENTS...IT APPEARS 
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OR EVEN EAST OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...PULLING IN SOME MUCH DRIER AIR AND PROLONGING THE START 
OF THE PRECIPITATION.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE LATE 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVEN TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE REGION SEES ANY 
PRECIPITATION...MAKING FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON OR EVENING COMMUTE.  IT 
ALSO APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES 
INLAND...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY 
LIGHT...MAINLY AROUND OR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.  MODELS ARE 
HINTING THAT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF 
PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE FLOW...THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER DONE.  
ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SAN DIEGO 
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING 
ELSEWHERE.  MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO 
NORTHEASTERLY...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH AND 
BELOW THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE 
SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE ONLY PEAK AROUND 10 MBS BETWEEN LINDBERGH AND 
TONOPAH...AND AROUND 4 MBS BETWEEN LINDBERGH AND DAGGETT.  THE UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS ALSO LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK...30 TO 35 KNOTS AT BEST 
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MBS.  THEREFORE...THINK THAT SOME ADVISORY TYPE 
WINDS MAYBE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED AT THIS TIME.  
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.  
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND POTENTIALLY DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST 
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.  EVEN GIVEN THE ISSUES WITH TIMES...IT 
LOOKS AS THOUGH THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 
COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. 
&&
.AVIATION...
061625Z...BKN-OVC CLDS FL150-200 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 
06/21Z...STRATUS BLO 1000 FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATER AND MOVE 
TOWARDS THE COAST. BY AROUND 07/00Z...THE STRATUS WILL BE OVER THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE IT TO COASTAL 
AIRPORTS OF SAN/CRQ/SNA AFTER 07/00Z THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL IFR/MVFR CIGS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. 
ACCOMPANYING THE STRATUS...VIS WILL BE REDUCED TO AROUND 6SM WITH 
LOCALLY LOWER VIS OF 3-5SM. AFTER 07/15Z TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF 
THE LOW STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE COAST WITH OVC LAYERS AOA FL100 
REMAINING.
&&
.MARINE...
TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS 
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL BE 
OPPOSING THE BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. VERY ROUGH TO 
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS MAY WARRANT 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL 
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTS 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A BUILDING WEST-NORTHWEST 
SWELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK...AS OFFSHORE 
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP 
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION 
THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THESE DAYS...AND HUMIDITIES 
WILL FALL.  SOME OF THE FAVORED SPOTS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS RANGING 
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.  IF MEANINGFUL RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ON 
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SURFACE AGAIN 
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...MOKER

Expires:No;;332719
SXUS86 KSGX 062057
CGRSGX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PST MON FEB 6 2012
ID  /WX VSB   / WIND   / WAVE / SEA/ AIR/ PRESS/ REMARKS   STATION 
6L9  PCH6     / W07    / 0411 / 58 / 58 / 1015 /           HUNTINGTON BEACH
3L3  CY20     / CALM   /      /    / 60 /      /           NEWPORT BEACH
L10  CY10     / NW04   / 0213 / 58 / 58 / 1015 / W/MX3     SAN CLEMENTE PIER
2L7  PC08     / W03    / 0212 / 57 / 64 / 1015 /           SOLANA BEACH
L58  CY10     / W05    / 0312 / 57 / 61 / 1015 /           MISSION BEACH

Expires:No;;329238
SXUS86 KLOX 061827
CGRLOX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PST MON FEB 06 2012
ID   WX VSB   WIND      WAVE   SEA  AIR  REMARKS    STATION NAME
P44  CY09   / NW03    / 0112 / 57 / 62 / SW SWL     SANTA BARBARA HBR
L79  C10    / 04      / 0212 / 56 / 59 / W/MX3      CHANNEL ISLANDS HBR
L27  C10    / NW02    / FLAT / 58 / 59 /            AVALON HARBOR
0L3  CY07   / N03     / 0112 / 57 / 59 / W/MX2      ZUMA BEACH
4L7  CY10   / CALM    / 0210 / 60 / 66 / NW/MX4     HERMOSA BEACH
L14  CY09   / WSW08   / 0114 / 56 / 59 / W/MX2      CABRILLO BEACH