No Warnings

Expires:No;;561197
FXUS66 KSGX 032028
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY 
WEEKEND...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP THE 
DAYS COOLER...AND PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE. THERE 
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS 
AND DESERTS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN NEXT WEEK... 
BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...COOLER WEATHER...AND MORE EXTENSIVE 
LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... 
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/HAZE 
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN 
DESERTS. OTHER PATCHY AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVER 
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENTS WERE 5-7 MBS ONSHORE FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS. NO 
SHOWERS WERE INDICATED BY RADAR THROUGH 20Z...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE 
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 
DESERTS AS HEATING PROGRESSES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY IS FORECAST TO EXPAND 
WESTWARD ALONG 30N OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT 
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES OVER SOCAL THROUGH MON AND A STRENGTHENING 
THERMAL LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE INCREASING 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL COUNTER THE BUILDING HIGH ALOFT AND COME TO SOME 
BALANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOME THINNING OF THE MARINE LAYER... 
BUT A STRONGER INVERSION. EXPECT THIS WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY 
DIFFICULT TO CLEAR THE BEACHES. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY 
REMAIN IN THE MID-LEVELS TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE 
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND FROM THE COAST.      
THE FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SHUT OFF AFTER SAT AS THE UPPER- 
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SO AFTER 
THAT...ANY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO 
MENTION. BY SUN AND MON...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE 
INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACNW AND 
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD SET US UP 
FOR TYPICAL SOCAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF NIGHT AND 
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MAX TEMPS RANGING 
FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES...TO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN 
THE INLAND VALLEYS. FOR THE FOOTHILLS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EXPECT 
SLIGHT COOLING BUT CONTINUED QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO 
NEAR 104 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EACH 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN 
THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS IN AMPLITUDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE 
LOWER 48. THE EC BUILDS A MASSIVE 599 MB CENTER NEAR THE FOUR 
CORNERS AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LOWER AMPLITUDE 
RIDGE CENTERED FARTHER TO THE EAST. IT ALSO KEEPS A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER MORE 
SEASONAL. AT THIS TIME WOULD BE INCLINED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSER 
TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS 
AND THE EC IS NOT. THAT IMPLIES DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO 
PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK.
 
&&
.AVIATION...
032015Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH CURRENTLY NEAR FL018 AND FORECAST TO 
LOWER TO FL012 DURING NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO STRENGTHENING AND 
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE 
ALOFT. CURRENTLY BROKEN-SCATTERED STRATUS LAYER OVER WATER AND 
INLAND 5SM WITH BASES FL007-010 AND TOPS AROUND FL017. THIS LAYER 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVERCAST AFTER 0300 UTC...THEN LAYER 
LOWERING WITH BASES FL004 AND TOPS FL012...SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND 
10-15SM AFTER 04/1000. STRATUS RETREATING BACK TO IMMEDIATE COAST 
AFTER 04/1600 UTC BUT LIKELY REMAINING OVERCAST-BROKEN DUE TO 
STRONGER INVERSION. OVER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 
FL100-FL200 THROUGH 0300 UTC AND AGAIN 04/1800-05/0300 UTC WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FL370.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION...BALFOUR

Expires:No;;559899
SXUS86 KSGX 032000
CGRSGX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
ID  /WX VSB   / WIND   / WAVE / SEA/ AIR/ PRESS/ REMARKS   STATION
6L9  CH06     / W06    / 0208 / 58 / 63 / 1014 /           HUNTINGTON BEACH
3L3  PC07     / WSW05  /      /    / 65 /      /           NEWPORT BEACH
L10  CYH04    / W09    / 0113 / 64 / 63 / 1015 / SW/MX3    SAN CLEMENTE PIER
L34  CYH06    / W10    / 0213 / 67 / 64 / 1016 /           OCEANSIDE HARBOR
2L7  CY08     / W09    / 0210 / 64 / 68 / 1016 /           SOLANA BEACH
L58  CY07     / NNW11  / 0210 / 59 / 64 / 1012 /           MISSION BEACH

Expires:No;;561083
SXUS86 KLOX 032021
CGRLOX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
100 PM PDT FRI JUL 03 2009
ID   WX VSB   WIND      WAVE   SEA  AIR  REMARKS    STATION NAME
L79  CYH04  / NNW10   / 0208 / 61 / 64 / W/MX3      CHANNEL ISLANDS HBR
OL3  C07    / W18     / 0112 / 60 / 61 / W/MX2      ZUMA BEACH
4L7  CYH03  / N10     / 0102 / 68 / 62 / W SWL      HERMOSA BEACH
L14  CH05   / SW10    / 0114 / 53 / 68 / SW SWL     CABRILLO BEACH